NBA playoffs bets: Celtics vs. Heat Game 3 prediction, odds, pick for Sat. 4/27

Celtics vs. Heat Odds

Saturday, April 27, 6 p.m., TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Boston Celtics

The narrative around the Celtics in Game 2 is going to be a bit dramatic and in my opinion, an overreaction. There is very little you can do when a team is shooting the way the Heat did. After the game, Jaylen Brown remarked that the closeouts were still strong for the Celtics. The open shots they did allow were to Jacquez and Highsmith, whom the Celtics would prefer get open the looks, whereas the Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro 3 pointers were generally difficult shots.

On offense the Celtics made a point to attack when their shots were not falling, and they did win the free throw battle, had +20 points in the paint over Miami, and drew more fouls with equal turnovers. I know pundits will pile on the Celtics, but oddsmakers and bettors will not, as evidence in the market analysis.

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat came out scorching hot in game 2 and stole one in Boston. Despite still being without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, the Miami Heat put the ball in Tyler Herro's hands and told all the role players around him to catch and shoot. It worked because the Heat had a record setting night from behind the arc. The Heat made 23 3-pointers, the most in franchise history. They also did that on a 54% clip, while shooting 57% of their total shot attempts from deep. It was truly a masterclass in shooting, and likely a large factor in shooting variance.

The Heat have established a method to attack and will try and continue to keep pace from deep, but we cannot expect the efficiency to continue. The word elite does not do a 54% clip justice, this was nuclear.

Celtics vs. Heat

Betting Pick & Prediction

The big change from Game 2 to 3 is the flip in home court advantage. The closing line in Game 2 was -14.5, whereas the current line sits at Boston -8 in Miami. The books are pricing this as a 6/6.5 point flip due to the arenas, which is perfectly on point with other series. There is not an overreaction to the results of Game 2 to make it like an 8 point flip, as I was kind of expecting. The total is flat too, the game 2 total closed at 205.5 and it reopened right there. I think there are two solid plays on this game; the under and Celtics ATS. I prefer betting the under now at under 205.5, currently available at PointsBet, because I think this falls to 204.5 universally. Game 2 landing on 212 despite the elite shooting and volume 3 pointers is an indicator these games will continue to fall below 210/205.

The Celtics against the spread will fit the First Round Favorites system that I back in the NBA playoffs of a 1/2 seed, in the first round, with a spread of -4 or greater. However, since the Heat took game 2 and may be getting Terry Rozier back, I can wait this out to see if a better number appears. I would love a Celtics -7.5, and with a consensus 8/8.5 in the market its wait and see. My ultimate plan is to play 0.75u on the under (submitted), and 0.5u on the spread (waiting) for a slightly over 1unit collective position on this Game 3.

Pick: o.75u On The Under | 0.5u On The Spread